根据引文情况，每年汤森路透对生理学或医学、物理、化学和经济学四个领域进行分析预测，并授予高影响力研究人员“引文桂冠奖”。2002年以来，共有21位引文桂冠奖得主已获得诺贝尔奖。
需要强调的是，只靠引用率评价科学贡献并不可靠，虽然预测的成功率不算低，但失败率更高。要知道，每年每个项目预测3个，那么就有120个方向，其中绝大部分都被预测失败，可见其失败率非常高。因此，这个预测更象是娱乐性质。不过，从这些引用选择出的引文冠奖，可以作为我们了解相关知识，特别是了解热点问题的一个重要线索，仍具有一定价值。
今年医学生理学被预测的三个领域非常有意思，一个是细胞核内的蛋白质组蛋白在基因表达调节方面的研究。第二个是磷酸化调节的细胞内蛋白信号调节方式。第三个是关于细胞直接黏附分子的发现。就是说从细胞外，到细胞内一直到细胞核都涉及了，不会那么巧合吧，可见存在为提高命中率的忽悠成份。
C. David Allis http://www.rockefeller.edu/research/faculty/labheads/DavidAllis/
Michael Grunstein Distinguished Professor of Biological Chemistry
Allis教授和Grunstein教授主要贡献是研究染色体上的组蛋白，对基因表达调控的意义。我们知道，基因很多，但表达需要管理，否则就会混乱，Allis教授和Grunstein教授认为和DNA在一起的组蛋白在这个过程中很重要，他们也证明了这一假说，并发现了一些调节方式。贡献不小，似乎假说并不太高明。
Anthony “Tony” R. Hunter For the discovery of tyrosine phosphorylation and contributions to understanding protein kinases and their role in signal transduction
Anthony “Tony” J. Pawson Distinguished Scientist and Apotex Chair in Molecular Oncology
For identification of the phosphotyrosine binding SH2 domain and demonstrating its function in protein-protein interactions
首先要知道蛋白磷酸化和去磷酸化，蛋白磷酸化。磷酸化是指在蛋白质或其他类型分子上，加入一个磷酸基团。去磷酸化就是把磷酸化的基团去掉。细胞内蛋白质的磷酸化和去磷酸化都是在相应的调节酶催化下实现的。蛋白质磷酸化可发生在许多种类的氨基酸（蛋白质的主要单位）上，其中以丝氨酸为多，接着是苏氨酸。而酪氨酸则相对较少磷酸化的发生，不过由于经过磷酸化之后的酪氨酸较容易利用抗体来纯化，因此酪氨酸的磷酸化作用位置也较广为了解。
这两位科学家的贡献正是在磷酸化信号分子传递方式的贡献。细胞感受到外来的信息，如激素等，可以通过一些感受分子，如受体，受体和配体结合后可以启动一些反应，这些后续反应需要另外一些分子。关于信号传导，曾经有G蛋白的研究获得过诺贝尔大奖，现在酪氨酸磷酸化有开始进入人们的视野，磷酸化和去磷酸化最重要的后果是使蛋白的局部发生一个改变，就是被修饰的部分产生极性，或失去极性，产生极性的容易和其他具有极性的分子结合，或自身发生空间的变形。利用这种调节方式，蛋白质的功能，如酶活性发生改变。这种变化有时候甚至是巨大的，类似开关一样。而细胞内存在数量巨大的蛋白分子采用这种调节方式，是细胞在各种生理或病理活动中发挥各类作用的重要调节方式。许多分子之间形成一种相互作用的网络和通路，是精彩的细胞功能的信息传递模式。这个贡献不小，上述两个人一个是发现酪氨酸磷酸化调节这个现象，一个是证明这个现象主要调节的亚分子部位。就是
Richard O. Hynes Daniel K. Ludwig Professor for Cancer Research
Erkki Ruoslahti Distinguished Professor, Center for Nanomedicine
Masatoshi Takeichi Director, RIKEN Center for Developmental Biology
三个细胞黏附分子的最早期发现者，美国学者Hynes和Ruoslahti发现integrins，日本学者Takeichi发现cadherins。
相关报道
Philadelphia, PA, September 19, 2012 – With the eyes of the world firmly fixed on Stockholm and the upcoming announcement of the 2012 Nobel Prize recipients, the IP & Science business of Thomson Reuters, the world leader in intelligent information for businesses and professionals, announced its 2012 “Nobel-class” Citation Laureates today.
Annually, Thomson Reuters citation analysts mine proprietary data from the company’s research platform, Web of Knowledge?, to identify the most influential researchers in the categories of chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine, and economics. Based on a thorough review of citations to their research, the company names these high-impact researchers as Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates and predicts them to be Nobel Prize winners, either this year or in the future.
“Our Citation Laureate selection process operates much like the Nobel Foundation’s selection process,” said David Pendlebury, Thomson Reuters citation analyst. “We recognize fundamental discoveries and identify the most important contributors to these discoveries. Our Citation Laureates have made such important contributions to science that we believe them to be peers of the Nobel Prize winners in every way; they simply have yet to win.”
The Citation Laureates rank among the top one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of researchers in their fields in terms of citation impact, based on citations of their published papers over the last three decades. The 2012 Laureates include 21 influential researchers whose high-profile discoveries cover pioneering work such as quantum teleportation (Charles H. Bennett of IBM Corporation, Gilles Brassard of the University of Montreal and William K. Wootters of Williams College); the experimental demonstration of “slow light” (Stephen E. Harris of Stanford University and Lene V. Hau of Harvard University); and fundamental discoveries in genetic regulation (C. David Allis of Rockefeller University and Michael Grunstein of University of California, Los Angeles).
Also among the high-profile achievements of this year’s picks is the pioneering work in financial market volatility and the dynamics of asset prices by Robert Shiller of Yale University. Shiller is known as the author of the best-selling book Irrational Exuberance, which warned of the damaging stock and housing market bubbles.
Thirteen of the 2012 Citation Laureates hail from American institutions, two are from Canada, three from Japan and three from the United Kingdom. Now in its eleventh consecutive year of predictions, Thomson Reuters has successfully predicted 26 Nobel Prize recipients to date.
For detailed information about the Citation Laureates and their fields of research, and to learn about previously named Citation Laureates who are still contending for a Nobel Prize, visit the Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates website athttp://sciencewatch.thomsonreuters.com/nobel.
Follow @nobelcitings and @TR_ScienceWatch on Twitter.com for up-to-the-minute news on the predictions and deeper insight into their fields of research. Facebook users are encouraged to take part in Nobel discussions on the Web of Knowledge Facebook page.
The 2012 Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates by Nobel Prize category are:
CHEMISTRY
Louis E. Brus
Samuel Latham Mitchill Professor
Department of Chemistry
Columbia University
New York, New York, USA
For discovery of colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals (quantum dots)
Akira Fujishima
President, Tokyo University of Science
Special University Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo
Supreme Advisor, Kanagawa Academy of Science and Technology
Tokyo, Japan
For the discovery of photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide (the Honda-Fujishima Effect)
Masatake Haruta
Adjunct Professor, Department of Applied Chemistry
Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences
Tokyo Metropolitan University
Tokyo, Japan
-and-
Graham J. Hutchings
Professor of Physical Chemistry and Director of the Cardiff Catalysis Center
Cardiff University
Cardiff, Wales, U.K.
For independent foundational discoveries of catalysis by gold
PHYSICS
Charles H. Bennett
IBM Fellow
Thomas J. Watson Research Center
IBM Corporation
Yorktown Heights, New York, USA
-and-
Gilles Brassard
Canada Research Chair in Quantum Information Processing
University of Montreal
Montreal, Quebec, Canada
-and-
William K. Wootters
Barclay Jermain Professor of Natural Philosophy
Department of Physics
Williams College
Williamstown, Massachusetts, USA
For their pioneering description of a protocol for quantum teleportation, which has since been experimentally verified
Leigh T. Canham
Chief Scientific Officer
pSiMedica Ltd.
Malvern
Honorary Professor
School of Physics and Astronomy
University of Birmingham
Birmingham, England, U.K.
For discovery of photoluminescence in porous silicon
Stephen E. Harris
Kenneth and Barbara Oshman Professor of Electrical Engineering and Professor of Applied Physics Emeritus
Stanford University
Stanford, California, USA
-and-
Lene V. Hau
Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics and Applied Physics
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
For the experimental demonstration of electromagnetically induced transparency (Harris) and of ‘slow light’ (Harris and Hau)
PHYSIOLOGY or MEDICINE
C. David Allis
Tri-Institutional Professor and Joy and Jack Fishman Professor
Head, Laboratory of Chromatin Biology and Epigenetics
Rockefeller University
New York, New York, USA
-and-
Michael Grunstein
Distinguished Professor of Biological Chemistry
Geffen School of Medicine
University of California Los Angeles
Los Angeles, California, USA
For fundamental discoveries concerning histone modifications and their role in genetic regulation
Anthony “Tony” R. Hunter
American Cancer Society Professor
Molecular and Cell Biology Laboratory
Renato Dulbecco Chair
Salk Institute for Biological Studies
Adjunct Professor, Section of Molecular Biology
University of California, San Diego
La Jolla, California, USA
For the discovery of tyrosine phosphorylation and contributions to understanding protein kinases and their role in signal transduction
-and-
Anthony “Tony” J. Pawson
Distinguished Scientist and Apotex Chair in Molecular Oncology
Samuel Lunenfeld Research Institute of Mount Sinai Hospital
Professor in the Department of Molecular Genetics
University of Toronto
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
For identification of the phosphotyrosine binding SH2 domain and demonstrating its function in protein-protein interactions
Richard O. Hynes
Daniel K. Ludwig Professor for Cancer Research
David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
-and-
Erkki Ruoslahti
Distinguished Professor, Center for Nanomedicine
Sanford-Burnham Medical Research Institute
La Jolla, California, USA
-and-
Masatoshi Takeichi
Director, RIKEN Center for Developmental Biology
Kobe, Japan
For pioneering discoveries of cell adhesion molecules, Hynes and Ruoslahti for integrins and Takeichi for cadherins
ECONOMICS
Sir Anthony B. Atkinson
Fellow, Nuffield College
Oxford, England, U.K.
For studies of income inequality and contributions to welfare state and public sector economics
-and-
Angus S. Deaton
Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics and International Affairs
Woodrow Wilson School
Princeton University
Princeton, New Jersey, USA
For empirical research on consumption, income and savings, poverty and health, and well-being
Stephen A. Ross
Franco Modigliani Professor of Financial Economics and Professor of Finance
The MIT Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
For his arbitrage pricing theory and other fundamental contributions to finance
Robert J. Shiller
Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics
Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics and Professor of Finance
The International Center for Finance
Yale University
New Haven, Connecticut, USA
For pioneering contributions to financial market volatility and the dynamics of asset prices
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